A Chill in the Air

That chill in the air, the snow on the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo — Santa Fe is rounding third base (fall) and heading for home (winter).

And if the snow on the mountaintops is too early for you, blame Canada.

“This is certainly an exchange of air masses,” said Tim Shy, a senior forecaster with the National Weather Service. “Instead of receiving warm air masses from Mexico, we’re getting more polar air from up north that’s diving down from Canada and the Arctic.”

Early October snowfall in spots above 9,000-feet elevation are normal, Shy said.

He said the two northern New Mexico measuring sites employed by the National Weather Service received between one-half and 1½ inches of snowfall over the weekend.

An official at Ski Santa Fe said 6 inches fell there over the weekend.

Either way, more is to come.

“We have another system coming in this weekend,” Shy said. “It’s coming out of western Canada, the northeast pacific. Storms start there and dive south to the Four Corners area, bringing cold air with them and moisture.”

The storms bring something else as well: a boost in ski pass sales at Ski Santa Fe. Candy DeJoia was manning the office there on Monday.

“Today (Monday), a lot of people have come in to pick up their passes or buy passes,” DeJoia said. “People see the snow and it just reminds them, I guess.”

DeJoia said she also received a call early Monday morning from a mother wondering if her son could go snowboarding. “I told her, ‘Well, maybe if he has a really old board,’ ” she said.

There’s still no telling when ski season will officially begin.

Ski Santa Fe opened last year on Dec. 15, DeJoia said. She wants everyone to “think snow” and will the weather gods into supplying enough for an open mountain come Thanksgiving.

Shy, citing the Climate Prediction Center in Washington, D.C., (“Those are the folks that do these long, lead forecasts,” he said) anticipates a typical winter in New Mexico, only slightly warmer.

“We’re basically setting up for a winter that, when we look back on it, will be considered warmer than normal by a few degrees,” Shy said.

What will determine this? Try warring sky bubbles.

“There’s a little bubble over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles — over western Oklahoma — that suggests they’ll get a little more precipitation than normal,” Shy said. “At the end of the winter, we’ll see that southern New Mexico has gotten less precipitation than normal.

“The Santa Fe mountains are halfway between the two. It’ll be interesting to watch which is the dominant force.”

Shy said slightly warmer temperatures could turn some would-be snow into rain or freezing rain.

“The cold air should be taken as warning bells for the winter to come,” Shy said. “These are the days to be wrapping pipes, winterizing cars, having snow shovels on hand to make sure you can get out when the snow is deeper. Whatever steps need to be taken.”

The customary time for snow to begin falling in Santa Fe itself is the first week of December, Shy said, “so folks have a couple months or so to get ready.”